Survival following pancreatic carcinoma: a follow‐up study of all cases recorded in Malmö, Sweden, 1977–1991

Background The aim of this follow‐up study was to assess whether there has been any increase in the percentage of patients offered attempted curative surgery for pancreatic carcinoma and whether the overall survival rate has improved, during the time period 1977–1991. Methods Details of new cases of pancreatic carcinoma arising in the population of Malmö during the study period were retrieved from the Local Tumour Register in Lund, Sweden. In all, 740 patients were found; 575 of these were diagnosed before death. Kaplan–Meier analysis was used to calculate overall survival rates, and Cox regression analysis was used to assess survival in relation to year of diagnosis after adjustment for sex, age at diagnosis and stage of disease. Results Cytological or histopathological evidence of the disease was given in 95 per cent of cases. The overall 5‐year survival rate was 0·5 per cent (three of 575). Curative surgery was attempted in 24 patients (4·2 per cent); the proportion undergoing curative surgery increased in the last part of the study. Two of the 24 patients in this group survived for 5 years. Conclusion The prognosis in pancreatic carcinoma remains dismal. Attempted curative surgery still is the only hope for cure, but the group of patients that can be offered this possibility is very limited. In this study, an increase was found in the proportion of patients who were offered attempted curative surgery, but there was no statistically significant increase in the 5‐year survival rate following surgery. © 1998 British Journal of Surgery Society Ltd