Limited role of Ki-67 proliferative index in predicting overall short-term survival in patients with typical and atypical pulmonary carcinoid tumors

Pulmonary carcinoid tumors are currently classified as typical or atypical based on the mitotic index (2 per 10 hpf) and/or the presence of necrosis. Following incorporation of the Ki-67 index into the classification of GI carcinoid tumors, our oncologists have also been requesting this test as part of the work-up of pulmonary carcinoid tumors although there are currently no established criteria for interpreting Ki-67 index in these neoplasms. We utilized the Ariol(®) SL50 Image Analyzer system to measure the Ki-67 index in 101 pulmonary carcinoid tumors (78 typical and 23 atypical) and then correlated the Ki-67 index and the histological diagnoses in univariate and multivariable analysis with overall survival. The mean Ki-67 indices for the typical carcinoids (3.7 s.d.± 4.0) and the atypical carcinoids (18.8 s.d.± 17.1) were significantly different (P<0.001) although the frequency distributions of Ki-67 indices in the two groups overlapped considerably. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that a Ki-67 index cutoff value of 5% provided the best fit for specificity and sensitivity in predicting overall survival. Histological diagnosis and the Ki-67 index cutoff of 5% were each independently strong predictors of survival (P<0.001 and P=0.003, respectively). When considered together in multivariable analysis, histological diagnosis was the stronger predictor of overall survival and a Ki-67 index cutoff of 5% did not provide additional significant predictive survival information within either the typical carcinoid or the atypical carcinoid patient group. A few typical carcinoid patients with Ki-67 indices of 5% appeared to have worse survival after 5 years than those with Ki-67 indices <5%, but the data set was insufficiently powered to further analyze this. These findings do not provide best evidence for the routine use of Ki-67 index to prognosticate overall short-term survival in patients with pulmonary carcinoid tumors.