Open AccessA model for predicting life expectancy of children
with cystic fibrosis
Author(s) -
Aurora P.,
Wade A.,
Whitmore P,
Whitehead B
Publication year - 2000
Publication title -
european respiratory journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 4.021
H-Index - 241
eISSN - 1399-3003
pISSN - 0903-1936
DOI - 10.1034/j.1399-3003.2000.16f06.x
Subject(s) - cystic fibrosis , medicine , life expectancy , confidence interval , pediatrics , lung transplantation , transplantation , population , environmental health
In this study the authors aimed to produce a model for predicting the life expectancy of children with severe cystic fibrosis (CF) lung disease. The survival of 181 children with severe CF lung disease referred for transplan‐tation assessment 1988–1998 (mean age 11.5 yrs, median survival without transplant 1.9 yrs from date of assessment) were studied. Proportional hazards modelling was used to identify assessment measurements that are of value in predicting longevity. The resultant model included low height predicted forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), low minimum oxygen saturation ( S a,O 2 min) during a 12‐min walk, high age adjusted resting heart rate, young age, female sex, low plasma albumin, and low blood haemoglobin as predictors for poor prognosis. Extrapolation from the model suggests that a 12‐yr old male child with an FEV1 of 30% pred and a S a,O 2 min of 85% has a 44% risk of death within 2 yrs (95% confidence interval (CI) 35–54%), whilst a female child with the same measurements has a 63% risk of death (95% CI 52–73%) within the same period. The model produced may be of value in predicting the life expectancy of children with severe cystic fibrosis lung disease and in optimizing the timing of lung transplantation.