A simulation of the San Andreas Fault Experiment

The San Andreas fault experiment (Safe), which employs two laser tracking systems for measuring the relative motion of two points on opposite sides of the fault, has been simulated for an 8‐yr observation period. The two tracking stations are located near San Diego on the western side of the fault and near Quincy on the eastern side; they are roughly 900 km apart. Both will simultaneously track laser reflector equipped satellites as they pass near the stations. Tracking of the Beacon Explorer C spacecraft has been simulated for these two stations during August and September for 8 consecutive years. An error analysis of the recovery of the relative location of Quincy from the data has been made, allowing for model errors in the mass of the earth, the gravity field, solar radiation pressure, atmospheric drag, errors in the position of the San Diego site, and biases and noise in the laser systems. The results of this simulation indicate that the distance of Quincy from San Diego will be determined each year with a precision of about 10 cm. Projected improvements in these model parameters and in the laser systems over the next few years will bring the precision to about 1–2 cm by 1980.