Open AccessIntermodel variability of future changes in the Baiu rainband estimated by the pseudo global warming downscaling method
Author(s) -
Kawase Hiroaki,
Yoshikane Takao,
Hara Masayuki,
Kimura Fujio,
Yasunari Tetsuzo,
Ailikun Borjiginte,
Ueda Hiroaki,
Inoue Tomoshige
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: atmospheres
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.67
H-Index - 298
eISSN - 2156-2202
pISSN - 0148-0227
DOI - 10.1029/2009jd011803
Subject(s) - downscaling , rainband , climatology , environmental science , precipitation , general circulation model , meteorology , climate change , geology , geography , oceanography
Changes in the Baiu rainband owing to global warming are assessed by the pseudo global warming downscaling method (PGW‐DS). The PGW‐DS is similar to the conventional dynamical downscaling method using a regional climate model (RCM), but the boundary conditions of the RCM are obtained by adding the difference between the future and present climates simulated by coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) into the 6‐hourly reanalysis data in a control period. We conducted the multiple PGW‐DS runs using the selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel data set, giving better performance around East Asia in June, and the PGW‐DS run using the multiselected CGCM model ensemble mean (PGW‐MME run). The PGW‐MME and PGW‐DS runs show an increase in precipitation over the Baiu rainband and the southward shift of the Baiu rainband. The PGW‐MME run has good similarity to the average of all PGW‐DS runs. This fact indicates that an average of the multiple PGW‐DS runs can be replaced by a single PGW‐DS run using the multiselected CGCM ensemble mean, reducing the significant computational expense. In comparison with the GCM projections, the PGW‐DS runs reduce the intermodel variability in the Baiu rainband caused by the CGCMs themselves.