Open AccessStatistical modeling of total ozone: Selection of appropriate explanatory variables
Author(s) -
Mäder Jörg A.,
Staehelin Johannes,
Brunner Dominik,
Stahel Werner A.,
Wohltmann Ingo,
Peter Thomas
Publication year - 2007
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: atmospheres
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.67
H-Index - 298
eISSN - 2156-2202
pISSN - 0148-0227
DOI - 10.1029/2006jd007694
Subject(s) - atmospheric sciences , environmental science , ozone , climatology , northern hemisphere , stepwise regression , meteorology , mathematics , statistics , geology , geography
A set of 44 potential explanatory variables is used for statistical modeling of monthly mean total ozone values of 158 ground‐based stations. A stepwise elimination process leads to zonally optimized multiple regression models, which account for approximately 78% of the variance in total ozone in the tropics, 85% south of 60°S and more than 90% in the three remaining zones while only retaining six explanatory variables in the model. In all regions the dynamics appear to dominate ozone variability, which is primarily described by a proxy specifically designed to describe the effects of short‐term isentropic excursions at different altitude levels and the compression/expansion of air connected to convergence/divergence. The influence of equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) is also important in all regions, indicating the significant effects of anthropogenic emissions of ozone depleting substances (ODS). In addition to the dynamics and EESC, the influence of volcanic eruptions, represented by the integrated surface area density of stratospheric aerosols (SAD), has the largest impact on total ozone in northern regions. The results of the analysis are less clear in the Southern Hemisphere where only a few long‐enough ozone time series are available.