A model for long‐term climatic effects of impacts

We simulated climatic changes following the impacts of asteroids of different sizes on the present surface of Earth. These changes are assumed to be due to the variations of the radiation energy budget as determined by the amount of dust globally distributed in the atmosphere following the impact. A dust evolution model is used to determine the dust particle size spectra as a function of time and atmospheric altitude. We simulate radiation transfer through the dust layer using a multiple scattering calculation scheme and couple the radiative fluxes to an ocean circulation model in order to determine climatic changes and deviations over 2000 years following the impact. Resulting drops in sea surface temperatures are of the order of several degrees at the equator and decrease toward the poles, which is deduced from the increasing importance of infrared insulation of the dust cover at high latitudes. While gravitational settling reduces the atmospheric amount of dust significantly within 6 months, temperature changes remain present for roughly 1 year irrespective of impactor size. Below 1000 m ocean depth, these changes are small, and we do not observe significant modifications in the structure of the ocean circulation pattern. For bodies smaller than 3 km in diameter, climatic effects increase with impactor size. Beyond this threshold, there is enough dust in the atmosphere to block almost completely solar radiation; thus additional dust does not enhance climatic deviations anymore. In fact, owing to interaction in the infrared, we even observe smaller effects by going from a 5 km impactor to larger diameters.