Open AccessBackward Fokker‐Planck equation for determining model valid prediction period
Author(s) -
Chu Peter C.,
Ivanov Leonid M.,
Fan Chenwu
Publication year - 2002
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: oceans
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.67
H-Index - 298
eISSN - 2156-2202
pISSN - 0148-0227
DOI - 10.1029/2001jc000879
Subject(s) - predictability , fokker–planck equation , mathematics , variance (accounting) , scalar (mathematics) , statistical physics , computer science , statistics , physics , mathematical analysis , differential equation , economics , geometry , accounting
A new concept, valid prediction period (VPP), is presented here to evaluate ocean (or atmospheric) model predictability. VPP is defined as the time period when the prediction error first exceeds a predetermined criterion (i.e., the tolerance level). It depends not only on the instantaneous error growth but also on the noise level, the initial error, and the tolerance level. The model predictability skill is then represented by a single scalar, VPP. The longer the VPP, the higher the model predictability skill is. A theoretical framework on the basis of the backward Fokker‐Planck equation is developed to determine the mean and variance of VPP. A one‐dimensional stochastic dynamical system [ Nicolis , 1992] is taken as an example to illustrate the benefits of using VPP for model evaluation.