Present-day manifestation of the Nordic Seas Overflows

Dense Nordic waters enter the North Atlantic through passages in the Greenland-Scotland Ridge at a mean rate of 6 Sv. Subsequent entrainment of ambient water into the sinking plumes downstream of the sills approximately double this flux. Decade-long observations show these fluxes to be stable with no discernible trends. Hydraulic control of the overflows and the buffering effect of the Nordic basins effectively filter out short-term variability of dense water production associated with white noise North Atlantic Oscillation forcing. Simulations with directly forced and coupled atmosphere-ocean models show, under present climate conditions, overflow variability on multi-decadal time scales but no longterm trends.