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Recent advances in simulation and experiment have led to dramatic increases in the quantity and complexity of produced data, which makes the development of automated analysis tools very important. A powerful approach to analyze dynamics contained in such data sets is to describe/approximate it by diffusion on a free energy landscape - free energy as a function of reaction coordinates (RC). For the description to be quantitatively accurate, RCs should be chosen in an optimal way. Recent theoretical results show that such an optimal RC exists; however, determining it for practical systems is a very difficult unsolved problem. Here we describe a solution to this problem. We describe an adaptive nonparametric approach to accurately determine the optimal RC (the committor) for an equilibrium trajectory of a realistic system. In contrast to alternative approaches, which require a functional form with many parameters to approximate an RC and thus extensive expertise with the system, the suggested approach is nonparametric and can approximate any RC with high accuracy without system specific information. To avoid overfitting for a realistically sampled system, the approach performs RC optimization in an adaptive manner by focusing optimization on less optimized spatiotemporal regions of the RC. The power of the approach is illustrated on a long equilibrium atomistic folding simulation of HP35 protein. We have determined the optimal folding RC - the committor, which was confirmed by passing a stringent committor validation test. It allowed us to determine a first quantitatively accurate protein folding free energy landscape. We have confirmed the recent theoretical results that diffusion on such a free energy profile can be used to compute exactly the equilibrium flux, the mean first passage times, and the mean transition path times between any two points on the profile. We have shown that the mean squared displacement along the optimal RC grows linear with time as for simple diffusion. The free energy profile allowed us to obtain a direct rigorous estimate of the pre-exponential factor for the folding dynamics.

Protein Folding Free Energy Landscape along the Committor - the Optimal Folding Coordinate