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MCDA and Risk Analysis in Transport Infrastructure Appraisals: the Rail Baltica Case
Author(s) -
Inga Ambrasaite,
Michael Bruhn Barfod,
Kim Bang Salling
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
procedia - social and behavioral sciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 1877-0428
DOI - 10.1016/j.sbspro.2011.08.103
Subject(s) - multiple criteria decision analysis , weighting , decision analysis , transport infrastructure , risk analysis (engineering) , decision support system , baltica , computer science , operations research , economic analysis , business , transport engineering , engineering , economics , paleontology , ordovician , medicine , mathematical economics , artificial intelligence , biology , agricultural economics , radiology
This paper sets out a decision support system (DSS), COSIMA, involving the combination of cost-benefit analysis and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for transport infrastructure appraisals embracing both economic and strategic impacts. However, some shortcomings appear in the methodology regarding the uncertainties embedded within the criteria weights in the MCDA-part of COSIMA. Therefore, this paper presents the perspective of introducing risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation to the weighting profile in the MCDA-part. The DSS is presented through a case study concerning alternatives for the construction of the Rail Baltica railway line through the Baltic countries and Poland

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