Causal reasoning of emergency cases based on Fuzzy Cognitive Map

Emergency case reasoning is essential to emergency management. In this paper, we propose a novel emergency case reasoning method based on fuzzy cognitive map (FCM), to model the inherent causal relationships in emergency cases. Specifically, we first obtain emergency domain elements and mine their association rules, by leveraging natural language processing technology and FT-Growth dada mining algorithm. We then design an effective algorithm to learn causal knowledge links from the gathered association rules. Finally, we construct an FCM regarding emergency events and show the reasoning process. Experiments on the gas explosion demonstrate that the proposed method can successfully model the internal causal relationships of emergency elements, and the development of the emergency event can be reflected by the reasoning process of the proposed method according to its varying variables of state. The proposed method can effectively inference and predict the tendency of emergency cases based on the reasoning process, which can further provide valuable decision supports to emergency responders.