Complex systems analysis of hybrid warfare

Being empowered with the appropriate toolset will enable decision-makers to analyze how best to intervene in ever-changing complex systems. This research project explored deconstructing qualitative methods to identify and document requirements to connect the models to computational social science approaches. Previous efforts from our research provided a customizable toolset that assesses the current and future impact that decisions, policies, or strategies can deliver in a system to tackle particularly complex problems. This paper presents a portion of the research effort that developed a threat analysis framework by establishing formally documented research methods to effectively combine conceptual and computational tools. This enables more accurate, efficient, and foresightful knowledge capture and depictions of a particular problem space. The case that the tools and approach are tested against is Russia’s application of grey zone warfare tools in Moldova.