The Sophistication of Incidence Probability Distributions Associated with Agent-Based Model Synthetic Population Characteristics

Agent-based models (ABMs) often are designed to represent complex real-world systems that cannot be validly described in any other way. An essential part of the structure of the ABM is the representation of important variables in the synthetic population as they occur in the real populations of the relevant real systems. This paper examines the approach, including the inherent sophistication and required, non-intuitive statistical methodology, that is often required to appropriately include such concepts in a functional ABM. An example is drawn from a seemingly simple variable in air travel – the size of a group traveling together – which illustrates how an even simple synthetic population factor can become quite intricate.