Analysis and Predictions of Historical Responsibilities of Carbon Mitigation Based on the RICE-2010 Model

The background of the principle of historical Responsibilities (PHR) is that the allocation mechanism of carbon emission space contained in the Kyoto Protocol results in static, dynamic and other unfairness to developing countries. However, with the rapid increase of China’s carbon emissions in recent years, may China keep the relative advantages on historical accumulation emissions and per capita emission in the future? This paper adopts RICE-2010 to predict the future carbon emissions for major economies. We find that China may still keep a small advantage on per capita emissions, but will become the largest responsible country after the middle of this century and continue to rank first. This means that the PHR will lead China to the embarrassment of self-contradiction sooner or later. The PHR shall complete its “historical responsibility” of correcting the defects of the Kyoto Protocol. China shall shift from the PHR to a somewhat more constructive strategy.