Parametric Control of Macroeconomic Indicators Volatility

The paper demonstrates methods for solving urgent problems of detecting and suppressing the volatility of macroeconomic indicators on the basis of the parametric control theory and the global dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, describing the economies of the member states and candidates for membership in the Customs Union, as well as the European Union and the rest of the world. A linear approximation of a nonlinear model is derived and its parameters are estimated using Bayesian approach. The possibility of macroeconomic analysis of the impact of internal and external shocks on the economy indicators of the countries (and regions) at the historic and forecast periods is shown for the case of Kazakhstan. The possibility of solving the parametric control problem of the volatility of gross domestic product and inflation at the level of separate country (for the case of Kazakhstan) and at the level of the Customs Union both on the historic and the forecast intervals is demonstrated