On the Effectiveness of Candlestick Chart Analysis for the Brazilian Stock Market

everal techniques have been developed in pursuit of understanding the behavior of the financial market, in an attempt to predict the asset pricing behavior. The candlestick chart created in the 18th century is one of these techniques. In 2006, Greg Morris conducted a study on the effectiveness of this technique for the U.S. capital market. However, no similar work was done for the Brazilian market. In this paper, the behavior of part of the Brazilian capital market was studied using sixteen candlestick patterns. We considered the data series of ten stocks between 2005 and 2009, totaling approximately 40% of Ibovespa (São Paulo Stock Exchange Index) turnover. The frequency of confirmation of each pattern was measured along seven exchange sessions after occurrence of such pattern, and results were compared to those presented by Morris. Additionally, adjustments of the observed proportions of hits were tested for their statistical significance. Results found in the frequential analysis showed a discrepancy in relation to Morris's study. Likewise, in statistical analysis few patterns have confirmed the behavior expected of them. In at least one case the trend expressed by data, although significant, was contrary to the original interpretation of the pattern. Therefore, direct application of patterns developed for other markets, times or actions is not recommended. Such results do not allow for an affirmation that candlestick patterns have the power to predict future behavior of stocks traded in the Ibovespa stock market. However, we found statistically significant evidence of the predictive ability of some patterns, which may indicate that the technique must be adapted to the market where it is intended to be used. The main contributions of this paper are a partial replication of Morris’ study for a set of stocks traded in the Brazilian market, and a statistical analysis of the effectiveness of candlestick patterns as predictors of the behavior of those stocks.Click here and insert your abstract text