Challenges in Developing DDDAS based Methodology for Volcanic Ash Hazard Analysis – Effect of Numerical Weather Prediction Variability and Parameter Estimation | Zendy

Abani Patra | Zendy; Marcus Bursik | Zendy; J. Dehn | Zendy; Matthew D. Jones | Zendy; Reza Madankan | Zendy; D. Morton | Zendy; Michael J. Pavolonis | Zendy; E. Bruce Pitman | Zendy; S. Pouget | Zendy; Tarunraj Singh | Zendy; Puneet Singla | Zendy; E. R. Stefanescu | Zendy; P. W. Webley | Zendy

Open Access

Challenges in Developing DDDAS based Methodology for Volcanic Ash Hazard Analysis – Effect of Numerical Weather Prediction Variability and Parameter Estimation

Author(s) -

Abani Patra,

Marcus Bursik,

J. Dehn,

Matthew D. Jones,

Reza Madankan,

D. Morton,

Michael J. Pavolonis,

E. Bruce Pitman,

S. Pouget,

Tarunraj Singh,

Puneet Singla,

E. R. Stefanescu,

P. W. Webley

Publication year - 2013

Publication title -

procedia computer science

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 0.334

H-Index - 76

ISSN - 1877-0509

DOI - 10.1016/j.procs.2013.05.356

Subject(s) - computer science , polynomial chaos , volcanic ash , hazard analysis , meteorology , volcano , data mining , geology , statistics , monte carlo method , aerospace engineering , seismology , engineering , physics , mathematics

In this paper, we will present ongoing work on using a dynamic data driven application system (DDDAS) based approach to the forecast of volcanic ash transport and dispersal. Our primary modeling tool will be a new code puffin formed by the combination of a plume eruption model Bent and the ash transport model Puff. Data from satellite imagery, observation of vent parameters and windfields will drive our simulations. We will use ensemble based uncertainty quantification and parameter estimation methodology – polynomial chaos quadrature in combination with data integration to complete the DDDAS loop

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