Hepatitis C elimination in Myanmar: Modelling the impact, cost, cost-effectiveness and economic benefits

Background Myanmar has set national hepatitis C (HCV) targets to achieve 50% of people diagnosed and 50% treated by 2030. The WHO has additional targets of reducing incidence by 80% and mortality by 65% by 2030. We aimed to estimate the impact, cost, cost-effectiveness and net economic benefit of achieving these targets. Methods Mathematical models of HCV transmission, disease progression and the care cascade were calibrated to 15 administrative regions of Myanmar. Cost data were collected from a community testing and treatment program in Yangon. Three scenarios were projected for 2020–2030: (1) baseline (current levels of testing/treatment); and testing/treatment scaled up sufficiently to reach (2) the national strategy targets; and (3) the WHO targets. Findings Without treatment scale-up, 333,000 new HCV infections and 97,000 HCV-related deaths were estimated to occur in Myanmar 2020–2030, with HCV costing a total $100 million in direct costs (testing, treatment, disease management) and $10.4 billion in lost productivity. In the model, treating 55,000 people each year was sufficient to reach the national strategy targets and prevented a cumulative 40,000 new infections (12%) and 25,000 HCV-related deaths (25%) 2020–2030. This was estimated to cost a total $189 million in direct costs ($243 per DALY averted compared to no treatment scale-up), but only $9.8 billion in lost productivity, making it cost-saving from a societal perspective by 2024 with an estimated net economic benefit of $553 million by 2030. Reaching the WHO targets required further treatment scale-up and additional direct costs but resulted in greater longer-term benefits. Interpretation Current levels of HCV testing and treatment in Myanmar are insufficient to reach the national strategy targets. Scaling up HCV testing and treatment in Myanmar to reach the national strategy targets is estimated to generate significant health and economic benefits. Funding Gilead Sciences.