Do superspreaders generate new superspreaders? A hypothesis to explain the propagation pattern of COVID-19 | Zendy

Pablo M. Beldoménico | Zendy

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Do superspreaders generate new superspreaders? A hypothesis to explain the propagation pattern of COVID-19

Author(s) -

Pablo M. Beldoménico

Publication year - 2020

Publication title -

international journal of infectious diseases

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 1.278

H-Index - 89

eISSN - 1878-3511

pISSN - 1201-9712

DOI - 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.025

Subject(s) - covid-19 , explosive material , transmission (telecommunications) , viral infection , transmission rate , viral load , biology , virology , infectious disease (medical specialty) , geography , computer science , medicine , virus , telecommunications , disease , archaeology , pathology , outbreak

The current global propagation of COVID-19 is heterogeneous, with slow transmission continuing in many countries and exponential propagation in others, where the time that it took for the explosive spread to begin varied greatly. It is proposed that this could be explained by cascading superspreading events, in which new infections caused by a superspreader are more likely to be highly infectious. The mechanism suggested for this is related to viral loads. Exposure to high viral loads may result in high-intensity infection, which exposes new cases to high viral loads. This notion is supported by experimental veterinary research.

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