Preliminary estimates of the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020 | Zendy

Zian Zhuang | Zendy; Shi Zhao | Zendy; Qianying Lin | Zendy; Peihua Cao | Zendy; Yijun Lou | Zendy; Lin Yang | Zendy; Shu Yang | Zendy; Daihai He | Zendy; Li Xiao | Zendy

Open Access

Preliminary estimates of the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020

Author(s) -

Zian Zhuang,

Shi Zhao,

Qianying Lin,

Peihua Cao,

Yijun Lou,

Lin Yang,

Shu Yang,

Daihai He,

Li Xiao

Publication year - 2020

Publication title -

international journal of infectious diseases

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 1.278

H-Index - 89

eISSN - 1878-3511

pISSN - 1201-9712

DOI - 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.044

Subject(s) - outbreak , covid-19 , demography , transmission (telecommunications) , basic reproduction number , geography , reproduction , disease , medicine , virology , biology , infectious disease (medical specialty) , population , ecology , sociology , electrical engineering , engineering

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has caused 6088 cases and 41 deaths in Republic of Korea, and 3144 cases and 107 death in Italy by 5 March 2020, respectively. We modelled the transmission process in the Republic of Korea and Italy with a stochastic model, and estimated the basic reproduction number R 0 as 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3-2.9) or 3.2 (95% CI: 2.9-3.5) in the Republic of Korea, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 31 January or 5 February 2020, and 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3-2.9) or 3.3 (95% CI: 3.0-3.6) in Italy, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 5 February or 10 February 2020, respectively.

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