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Theory and Practice of Contagion in Monetary Unions: Domino Effects in EMU Mediterranean Countries
Author(s) -
Paolo Canofari,
Giovanni Di Bartolomeo,
Giovanni Piersanti
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
international advances in economic research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.155
H-Index - 25
eISSN - 1573-966X
pISSN - 1083-0898
DOI - 10.1007/s11294-014-9471-2
Subject(s) - economics , domino effect , european monetary union , mediterranean climate , domino , international economics , monetary economics , european union , monetary policy , geography , political science , biochemistry , chemistry , archaeology , catalysis , law
This paper analyzes strategic interactions and contagion effects in the peripheral countries of a monetary union. Using game theory and cost-benefit analysis, the paper determines the set of equilibrium solutions under which country-specific shocks are transmitted to other member countries giving rise to contagion. Numerical simulations, obtained by a simple calibration of the model on some key Mediterranean countries of the Euro Zone, show the probabilities of contagion from Greece, Spain and Italy.

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