Vorschlag für ein prognose- und simulationsmodell des umwandlungsbereichs der energiewirtschaft in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland

Summary  A Proposal for a Forecast and Simulation Model of the Energy Transformation Sector in the Federal Republic of Germany. — In this article an attempt is made to develop a forecast and simulation model of the energy transformation sector in the Federal Republic of Germany. First of all a method is shown by which energy balances can be transformed into energy input-output tables. Such tables enable a more detailed view of the energy sector in a flow diagram than those developed by the "Working Committee on Energy Balances." Furthermore, they lead to a critical evaluation of current balance methods, and reveal that certain assumptions — made in setting up these balances — do not hold up with respect to the transformation technology. In interpreting the theoretical implications of the input-output set-up, it is also possible to adequately consider the transformation losses and thus arrive at a definite solution to the simultaneous equation system.