Forecasting crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels | Zendy

Michael Ye | Zendy; John Zyren | Zendy; Joanne Shore | Zendy

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Forecasting crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels

Author(s) -

Michael Ye,

John Zyren,

Joanne Shore

Publication year - 2002

Publication title -

international advances in economic research

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 0.155

H-Index - 25

eISSN - 1573-966X

pISSN - 1083-0898

DOI - 10.1007/bf02295507

Subject(s) - petroleum , crude oil , economics , oil price , spot market , petroleum product , spot contract , production (economics) , natural resource economics , financial economics , macroeconomics , monetary economics , petroleum engineering , engineering , chemistry , electricity , electrical engineering , organic chemistry , futures contract

This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels. Theoretically, petroleum inventory levels are a measure of the balance, or imbalance, between petroleum production and demand, and thus provide a good market barometer of crude oil price change. Based on an understanding of petroleum market fundamentals and observed market behavior during the post-Gulf War period, the model was developed with the objectives of being both simple and practical, with required data readily available. As a result, the model is useful to industry and government decision-makers in forecasting price and investigating the impacts of changes on price, should inventories, production, imports, or demand change.

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