Chaos theory and social science: A methodological analysis

This article investigates the relevance of chaos theory for social science. The application of chaos models in the analysis of social phenomena is accompanied by some important scientific problems. First, whether observations of social phenomena are generated by nonlinear dynamics cannot be ascertained beyond considerable doubt, especially when these observations contain measurement errors; i.e., there is a problem of external validity. Secondly, and more important, as a theory of irregular cyclical social behaviour is lacking, inductive-statistical theoryformation about such behaviour, which is based on fitting a mathematical model of chaos to observations of social phenomena, is impossible unless additional information is used concerning the context and circumstances wherein the social phenomena occur; i.e., the internal validity of any theoretical explanation that is derived from only a fitted mathematical model (of chaos) cannot be assessed. So, research into the suggestion derived from mathematical chaos theory that irregular cycles may be present in the development of social phenomena over time requires theory-formation about irregular cyclical social behaviour on the basis of established theoretical insights and empirical evidence instead of fitting sophisticated mathematical models of chaos to observations of social phenomena.