Agent‐based simulation of open source evolution

We present an agent‐based simulation model developed to study how size, complexity and effort relate to each other in the development of open source software (OSS). In the model, many developer agents generate, extend, and re‐factor code modules independently and in parallel. This accords with empirical observations of OSS development. To our knowledge, this is the first model of OSS evolution that includes the complexity of software modules as a limiting factor in productivity, the fitness of the software to its requirements, and the motivation of developers. Validation of the model was done by comparing the simulated results against four measures of software evolution (system size, proportion of highly complex modules, level of complexity control work, and distribution of changes) for four large OSS systems. The simulated results resembled the observed data, except for system size: three of the OSS systems showed alternating patterns of super‐linear and sub‐linear growth, while the simulations produced only super‐linear growth. However, the fidelity of the model for the other measures suggests that developer motivation and the limiting effect of complexity on productivity have a significant effect on the development of OSS systems and should be considered in any model of OSS development. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.