Premium
On the effect of uncertainty on personal vaccination decisions
Author(s) -
Courbage Christophe,
Peter Richard
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
health economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.55
H-Index - 109
eISSN - 1099-1050
pISSN - 1057-9230
DOI - 10.1002/hec.4405
Subject(s) - ambiguity , ambiguity aversion , vaccination , disease , actuarial science , expected utility hypothesis , economics , econometrics , medicine , computer science , immunology , financial economics , pathology , programming language
This study investigates the effect of ambiguity on personal vaccination decisions. We first characterize the vaccination decision in the absence of ambiguity. We then show that uncertainty about the probability of side effects and the efficacy of the vaccine always reduces take‐up under ambiguity aversion. However, uncertainty about the underlying disease, being the probability of sickness or the probability of a severe course of disease, may either encourage or discourage vaccination. Our results are relevant for policy because reducing uncertainty associated with the vaccine always has the desired effect whereas reducing uncertainty associated with the disease may have unintended consequences.