Open AccessLifetime risk of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis
Author(s) -
Murphy Louise,
Schwartz Todd A.,
Helmick Charles G.,
Renner Jordan B.,
Tudor Gail,
Koch Gary,
Dragomir Anca,
Kalsbeek William D.,
Luta Gheorghe,
Jordan Joanne M.
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
arthritis care & research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 1529-0131
pISSN - 0004-3591
DOI - 10.1002/art.24021
Subject(s) - medicine , osteoarthritis , body mass index , confidence interval , cohort , obesity , logistic regression , population , cohort study , physical therapy , risk factor , demography , environmental health , alternative medicine , pathology , sociology
Objective To estimate the lifetime risk of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (OA), overall and stratified by sex, race, education, history of knee injury, and body mass index (BMI). Methods The lifetime risk of symptomatic OA in at least 1 knee was estimated from logistic regression models with generalized estimating equations among 3,068 participants of the Johnston County Osteoarthritis Project, a longitudinal study of black and white women and men age ≥45 years living in rural North Carolina. Radiographic, sociodemographic, and symptomatic knee data measured at baseline (1990–1997) and first followup (1999–2003) were analyzed. Results The lifetime risk of symptomatic knee OA was 44.7% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 40.0–49.3%). Cohort members with history of a knee injury had a lifetime risk of 56.8% (95% CI 48.4–65.2%). Lifetime risk rose with increasing BMI, with a risk of 2 in 3 among those who were obese. Conclusion Nearly half of the adults in Johnston County will develop symptomatic knee OA by age 85 years, with lifetime risk highest among obese persons. These current high risks in Johnston County may suggest similar risks in the general US population, especially given the increase in 2 major risk factors for knee OA, aging, and obesity. This underscores the immediate need for greater use of clinical and public health interventions, especially those that address weight loss and self‐management, to reduce the impact of having knee OA.