Development and Validation of the Chronic Disease Population Risk Tool (CDPoRT) to Predict Incidence of Adult Chronic Disease

Key Points Question Can a prognostic model using lifestyle risk factors accurately predict the incidence of the first major chronic disease (ie, congestive heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, myocardial infarction, lung cancer, or stroke) at a population level? Findings In this cohort study, sex-specific prognostic models were developed and validated, demonstrating high overall predictive performance, discrimination, and calibration during development, internal validation, and external validation. Meaning Using routinely collected risk factor information, the Chronic Disease Population Risk Tool exhibited reproducibility and geographic transportability for predicting the 10-year incidence of the first major chronic disease at the population level.