Use of Data-Driven Methods to Predict Long-term Patterns of Health Care Spending for Medicare Patients

Key Points Question What are the long-term spending patterns by Medicare beneficiaries, and do baseline patient factors that are potentially modifiable predict these patterns? Findings In this cohort study using a data-driven approach to classifying Medicare beneficiaries by their spending over 2 years, 5 patterns were identified and could be predicted, including those with consistent spending levels and others with spending that increased progressively. The most influential potentially modifiable factors were number of medications, number of office visits, and mean medication adherence. Meaning These findings suggest that spending by Medicare beneficiaries falls into 5 distinct groups and could be accurately predicted; this approach could be adapted by organizations to target interventions.