Open AccessPrevention of Prescription Opioid Misuse and Projected Overdose Deaths in the United States
Author(s) -
Qiushi Chen,
Marc R. Larochelle,
Davis T. Weaver,
Anna P. Lietz,
Peter P. Mueller,
Sarah Mercaldo,
Sarah E. Wakeman,
Kenneth A. Freedberg,
Tiana J. Raphel,
Amy B. Knudsen,
Pari V. Pandharipande,
Jagpreet Chhatwal
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
jama network open
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.278
H-Index - 39
ISSN - 2574-3805
DOI - 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2018.7621
Subject(s) - opioid overdose , medicine , drug overdose , medical prescription , opioid , prescription drug misuse , medical emergency , emergency medicine , poison control , pharmacology , opioid use disorder , (+) naloxone , receptor
Key Points Question What is the projected effect of lowering incident nonmedical prescription opioid use on the future trajectory of the opioid overdose crisis in the United States? Findings In this system dynamics model study, under current conditions, the opioid overdose crisis is expected to worsen—with the annual number of opioid overdose deaths projected to reach nearly 82 000 by 2025, resulting in approximately 700 000 deaths from 2016 to 2025. Interventions focused on lowering the incidence of prescription opioid misuse were projected to result in a 3.0% to 5.3% decrease in opioid overdose deaths over this period. Meaning Prevention of prescription opioid misuse alone is projected to have a modest effect on lowering opioid overdose deaths in the near future, and multipronged approach is needed to dramatically change the course of the epidemic.
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