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After the first lockdown in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, many countriesfaced difficulties in balancing infection control with economics. Due tolimited prior knowledge, economists began researching this issue usingcost-benefit analysis and found that infection control processes significantlyaffect economic efficiency. A UK study used economic parameters to numericallydemonstrate an optimal balance in the process, including keeping the infectedpopulation stationary. However, universally applicable knowledge, which isindispensable for the guiding principles of infection control, has not yet beenclearly developed because of the methodological limitations of simulationstudies. Here, we propose a simple model and theoretically prove the universalresult of economic irreversibility by applying the idea of thermodynamics topandemic control. This means that delaying infection control measures is moreexpensive than implementing infection control measures early while keepinginfected populations stationary. This implies that once the infected populationincreases, society cannot return to its previous state without extraexpenditures. This universal result is analytically obtained by focusing on theinfection-spreading phase of pandemics, and is applicable not just to COVID-19,regardless of "herd immunity." It also confirms the numerical observation ofstationary infected populations in its optimally efficient process. Ourfindings suggest that economic irreversibility is a guiding principle forbalancing infection control with economic effects.

Economic irreversibility in pandemic control processes: Rigorous modeling of delayed countermeasures and consequential cost increases