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Predicting function from sequence is a central problem of biology. Currently, this is possible only locally in a narrow mutational neighborhood around a wildtype sequence rather than globally from any sequence. Using random mutant libraries, we developed a biophysical model that accounts for multiple features of σ 70  binding bacterial promoters to predict constitutive gene expression levels from any sequence. We experimentally and theoretically estimated that 10–20% of random sequences lead to expression and ~80% of non-expressing sequences are one mutation away from a functional promoter. The potential for generating expression from random sequences is so pervasive that selection acts against σ 70 -RNA polymerase binding sites even within inter-genic, promoter-containing regions. This pervasiveness of σ 70 -binding sites implies that emergence of promoters is not the limiting step in gene regulatory evolution. Ultimately, the inclusion of novel features of promoter function into a mechanistic model enabled not only more accurate predictions of gene expression levels, but also identified that promoters evolve more rapidly than previously thought.

Predicting bacterial promoter function and evolution from random sequences