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This paper explores the impacts of the evolution of the dietary structure of the population on national food security using the food self-sufficiency rate under various statistical dimensions and simulate various food security scenarios for China in the medium- and long-term future. This study indicates that China’s rapid economic and social development and the continuous improvement in people’s living standards appears to be declining in the food self-sufficiency rate. The analysis regarding the factors influencing the food self-sufficiency rate revealed that the improved dietary structure, involving an increase in animal-based food product consumption, has led to a decrease in China’s food self-sufficiency rate. It concludes that the dietary structure is likely to continue to move toward increased consumption of animal-based food products in China for the future. The research results will assist decision makers in formulating scientific food self-sufficiency rate targets and food security strategies.

Changes in China’s Food Self-Sufficiency Rate in the Context of a Changing Dietary Structure