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The next generation of wide-field cosmic microwave background (CMB) surveysare uniquely poised to open a new window for time-domain astronomy in themillimeter band. Here we explore the discovery phase space for extragalactictransients with near-term and future CMB experiments to characterize theexpected population. We use existing millimeter-band light curves of knowntransients (gamma-ray bursts, tidal disruption events, fast blue opticaltransients, neutron star mergers) and theoretical models, in conjunction withknown and estimated volumetric rates. Using Monte Carlo simulations of variousCMB survey designs (area, cadence, depth, duration) we estimate the detectionrates and the resulting light curve characteristics. We find that existing andnear-term surveys will find tens to hundreds of long-duration gamma-ray bursts(LGRBs), driven primarily by detections of the reverse shock emission, andincluding off-axis LGRBs. Next-generation experiments (CMB-S4, CMB-HD) willfind tens of fast blue optical transients (FBOTs) in the nearby universe andwill detect a few tidal disruption events. CMB-HD will additionally detect asmall number of short gamma-ray bursts, where these will be discovered withinthe detection volume of next generation gravitational wave experiments likeCosmic Explorer.

Extragalactic Millimeter Transients in the Era of Next Generation CMB Surveys