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Water worlds have been hypothesized as an alternative to photo-evaporation inorder to explain the gap in the radius distribution of Kepler exoplanets. Weexplore water worlds within the framework of a joint mass-radius-perioddistribution of planets fit to a sample of transiting Kepler exoplanets, asubset of which have radial velocity mass measurements. We employ hierarchicalBayesian modeling to create a range of ten mixture models that include multiplecompositional subpopulations of exoplanets. We model these subpopulations -including planets with gaseous envelopes, evaporated rocky cores, evaporatedicy cores, intrinsically rocky planets, and intrinsically icy planets - indifferent combinations in order to assess which combinations are most favoredby the data. Using cross-validation, we evaluate the support for models thatinclude planets with icy compositions compared to the support for models thatdo not, finding broad support for both. We find significant population-leveldegeneracies between subpopulations of water worlds and planets with primordialenvelopes. Among models that include one or more icy-core subpopulations, wefind a wide range for the fraction of planets with icy compositions, with arough upper limit of 50%. Improved datasets or alternative modeling approachesmay better be able to distinguish between these subpopulations of planets.

Evaluating the Evidence for Water World Populations using Mixture Models