Open AccessExperience in assessment of damage to population and economic facilities due to the Lena river natural waters impact
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
vodnoe hozâjstvo rossii: problemy, tehnologii, upravlenie/vodnoe hozâjstvo rossii : problemy, tehnologii, upravlenie
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2686-8253
pISSN - 1999-4508
DOI - 10.35567/1999-4508-2016-2-5
Subject(s) - probabilistic logic , environmental science , population , natural (archaeology) , range (aeronautics) , surface runoff , geography , natural disaster , hydrology (agriculture) , water resource management , statistics , mathematics , geology , ecology , engineering , geotechnical engineering , meteorology , archaeology , demography , aerospace engineering , sociology , biology
Calculation results of the probabilistic damage to the population and economic facilities due to the impact of 1-5 percent probability floods are presented for a 3400 km long range of the Lena River with taking into account of the runoff and jam levels. Methods of the probabilistic damage calculation are described in detail with individual inhibited locations of Irkutsk oblast and Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) as study cases. Analysis of the obtained results of the probabilistic damage assessment has been done in several steps: areas of the cadastre zones to be flooded have been determined; areas of dwelling houses and economic facilities to be flooded have been defined; damage values in every inhabited localities have been calculated with the norms of cost specific indicators; total forecasted damage for the Lena River range under investigation has been assessed according to 2014 prices. Comparative analysis of the calculated and actual damage characteristics has been carried out; a conclusion on the maximal volumes of the predicted damage has been done; the most protected inhibited locations and those requiring some protective waterwork facilities in the regions under consideration have been identified.