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Production system modeling (PSM) for quality propagation involves mapping the principles between components and systems. While most existing studies focus on the steady-state analysis, the transient quality analysis remains largely unexplored. It is of significance to fully understand quality propagation, especially during transients, to shorten product changeover time, decrease quality loss, and improve quality. In this paper, a novel analytical PSM approach is established based on the Markov model, to explore product quality propagation for transient analysis of serial multi-stage production systems. The cascade property for quality propagation among correlated sequential stages was investigated, taking into account both the status of the current stage and the quality of the outputs from upstream stages. Closed-form formulae to evaluate transient quality performances of multi-stage systems were formulated, including the dynamics of system quality, settling time, and quality loss. An iterative procedure utilizing the aggregation technique is presented to approximate transient quality performance with computational efficiency and high accuracy. Moreover, system theoretic properties of quality measures were analyzed and the quality bottleneck identification method was investigated. In the case study, the modeling error was 0.36% and the calculation could clearly track system dynamics; quality bottleneck was identified to decrease the quality loss and facilitate continuous improvement. The experimental results illustrate the applicability of the proposed PSM approach.

A Novel Analytical Modeling Approach for Quality Propagation of Transient Analysis of Serial Production Systems