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Despite the massive popularity of the Asian Handicap (AH) football (soccer)betting market, its efficiency has not been adequately studied by the relevantliterature. This paper combines rating systems with Bayesian networks andpresents the first published model specifically developed for prediction andassessment of the efficiency of the AH betting market. The results are based on13 English Premier League seasons and are compared to the traditional market,where the bets are for win, lose or draw. Different betting situations havebeen examined including a) both average and maximum (best available) marketodds, b) all possible betting decision thresholds between predicted andpublished odds, c) optimisations for both return-on-investment and profit, andd) simple stake adjustments to investigate how the variance of returns changeswhen targeting equivalent profit in both traditional and AH markets. While theAH market is found to share the inefficiencies of the traditional market, thefindings reveal both interesting differences as well as similarities betweenthe two.

Investigating the efficiency of the Asian handicap football betting market with ratings and Bayesian networks