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THE RECENT problems of inflation and of a seemingly permanent high rate of unemployment have caused a virtual neglect of research on cyclical fluctuations in demand. Yet even a cursory review of the past twenty years uncovers a familiar pattern of repeated expansion and contraction of industrial production with concomitant changes in employment, capacity utilization, profits, and the like. Inventory fluctuations have long been recognized as the major endogenous force in American business cycles. Rarely does a study of inventory behavior fail to note that some 75 percent of the cyclical downturn in gross national product from peak to trough can be accounted for by the reduction of business inventories. A decade before Metzler's illuminating analysis of the inventory accelerator process and Abramovitz's fundamental

Inventory Behavior in Durable-Goods Manufacturing: The Target-Adjustment Model