Open AccessEruption Scenarios of Active Volcanoes in Indonesia
Author(s) -
Setsuya Nakada,
Fukashi Maeno,
Mitsuhiro Yoshimoto,
Natsumi Hokanishi,
Taketo Shimano,
Akhmad Zaennudin,
Masato Iguchi
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
journal of disaster research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.332
H-Index - 18
eISSN - 1883-8030
pISSN - 1881-2473
DOI - 10.20965/jdr.2019.p0040
Subject(s) - volcano , event (particle physics) , geology , volcanic hazards , seismology , vulcanian eruption , magma , phreatic eruption , sequence (biology) , physics , quantum mechanics , biology , genetics
Eruption scenarios were prepared as possible sequences in event trees for six active volcanoes in Indonesia, that are located near populated areas or have erupted in recent years (Galunggung, Guntur, Kelud, Merapi, Semeru, and Sinabung). The event trees prepared here show sequences of possible eruption phenomena without probabilities on branches and cover sequences experienced in historical and pre-historical eruptions based on archives and field research results. Changing magma discharge rates during eruption sequences were considered for the event tree of Merapi. This conceptual event tree can also be used as a short-term event tree in which forecasting the coming eruption became possible with geophysical and geochemical monitoring data. Eruption event trees prepared for selected time windows cannot illustrate all plausible hazards and risks associated with an eruption. Therefore, hazards and risks generated from an eruption should be considered in different domains from the event tree.