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Based on provincial panel data from 2004 to 2022 in China, this article empirically analyzes the nonlinear impact mechanism of agricultural product trade (APT) on agricultural carbon emissions (ACE). The findings are as follows: (1) there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between APT and ACE, which is influenced by the functional areas of food production (The Government of China has designated some provinces as major grain producing areas to guarantee national food security) and the level of fiscal support for agriculture; (2) agricultural technology progress (ATECH) positively regulated the “inverted U” relationship between APT and ACE, accelerated the transition of APT effects on ACE from carbon-increasing to carbon-decreasing, and strengthened the inhibitory effect of APT on ACE in the later stage; (3) further study shows that there was a single rural digitization (RDIG) threshold in the process of APT affecting ACE. That is, after RDIG has crossed the threshold, the inhibitory effect of APT on ACE is more evident. Therefore, this study confirms the significant role of APT in reducing carbon emissions in typical countries, underscoring the importance of strengthening ATECH innovation and promoting RDIG in realizing the environmental greening effect of APT. It also highlights the need to implement tailored APT strategies in different regions.

How Agricultural Product Trade Affects Agricultural Carbon Emissions: Empirical Evidence Based on China Provincial Panel Data