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This study aimed to provide a framework to evaluate team attackingperformances in rugby league using 59,233 plays from 180 Super League matchesvia expected possession value (EPV) models. The EPV-308 split the pitch into308 5m x 5m zones, the EPV-77 split the pitch into 77 10m x 10m zones and theEPV-19 split the pitch in 19 zones of variable size dependent on the total zonevalue generated during a match. Attacking possessions were considered as MarkovChains, allowing the value of each zone visited to be estimated based on theoutcome of the possession. The Kullback-Leibler Divergence was used to evaluatethe reproducibility of the value generated from each zone (the rewarddistribution) by teams between matches. The EPV-308 had the greatestvariability and lowest reproducibility, compared to EPV-77 and EPV-19. When sixprevious matches were considered, the team's subsequent match attackingperformances had a similar reward distribution for EPV-19, EPV-77 and EPV-308on 95 +/- 4%, 51 +/- 12% and 0 +/- 0% of occasions. This study supports the useof EPV-19 to evaluate team attacking performance in rugby league and provides asimple framework through which attacking performances can be compared betweenteams.

Development of an expected possession value model to analyse team attacking performances in rugby league