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We conducted a prospective analysis of incident dementia and its associationwith 65 sociodemographic, early-life, economic, health and behavioral, social,and genetic risk factors in a sample of 7,908 adults over the age of 50 fromthe nationally representative US-based Health and Retirement Study. We usedtraditional survival analysis methods (Fine-Gray models) and a data-drivenapproach (random survival forests for competing risks) which allowed us toaccount for the competing risk of death with up to 14 years of follow-up.Overall, the top five predictors across all groups were lower education,loneliness, lower wealth and income, and lower self-reported health. However,we observed variation in the leading predictors of dementia acrossracial/ethnic and gender groups. Our ranked lists may be useful for guidingfuture observational and quasi-experimental research that investigatesunderstudied domains of risk and emphasizes life course economic and healthconditions as well as disparities therein.

A data-driven prospective study of incident dementia among older adults in the United States