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The first year of the COVID-19 pandemic put considerable strain on thenational healthcare system in England. In order to predict the effect of thelocal epidemic on hospital capacity in England, we used a variety of datastreams to inform the construction and parameterisation of a hospitalprogression model, which was coupled to a model of the generalised epidemic. Wenamed this model EpiBeds. Data from a partially complete patient-pathwayline-list was used to provide initial estimates of the mean duration thatindividuals spend in the different hospital compartments. We then fittedEpiBeds using complete data on hospital occupancy and hospital deaths, enablingestimation of the proportion of individuals that follow different clinicalpathways, and the reproduction number of the generalised epidemic. Theconstruction of EpiBeds makes it straightforward to adapt to different patientpathways and settings beyond England. As part of the UK response to thepandemic, EpiBeds has provided weekly forecasts to the NHS for hospital bedoccupancy and admissions in England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland.

EpiBeds: Data informed modelling of the COVID-19 hospital burden in England