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Mass vaccination offers a promising exit strategy for the COVID-19 pandemic.However, as vaccination progresses, demands to lift restrictions increase,despite most of the population remaining susceptible. Using our age-stratifiedSEIRD-ICU compartmental model and curated epidemiological and vaccination data,we quantified the rate (relative to vaccination progress) at which countriescan lift non-pharmaceutical interventions without overwhelming their healthcaresystems. We analyzed scenarios ranging from immediately lifting restrictions(accepting high mortality and morbidity) to reducing case numbers to a levelwhere test-trace-and-isolate (TTI) programs efficiently compensate for localspreading events. In general, the age-dependent vaccination roll-out implies atransient decrease of more than ten years in the average age of ICU patientsand deceased. The pace of vaccination determines the speed of liftingrestrictions; Taking the European Union (EU) as an example case, all consideredscenarios allow for steadily increasing contacts starting in May 2021 andrelaxing most restrictions by autumn 2021. Throughout summer 2021, only mildcontact restrictions will remain necessary. However, only high vaccine uptakecan prevent further severe waves. Across EU countries, seroprevalence impactsthe long-term success of vaccination campaigns more strongly than agedemographics. In addition, we highlight the need for preventive measures toreduce contagion in school settings throughout the year 2021, where childrenmight be drivers of contagion because of them remaining susceptible...

Relaxing restrictions at the pace of vaccination increases freedom and guards against further COVID-19 waves