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In 2000–01 the current account deficit of Portugal reached 10 percent of its GDP, up from 2–3 percent at the start of the 1990s. These deficits are forecast to continue in the 8–9 percent range for the indefinite future. Greece is not far behind. Its current account deficit in 2000–01 was equal to 6–7 percent of GDP, up from 1–2 percent in the early 1990s, and again, the forecasts are for deficits to remain high, in the 5–6 percent range. This is not the first time that some of the small member countries of the European Union have run large current account deficits. In the early 1980s, for example, Portugal ran deficits in excess of 10 percent of GDP. But those deficits had a very different flavor from today’s: Portugal then was still reeling from its 1975 revolution, from the loss of its colonies, and from the second oil shock; the government was running a large budget deficit, in excess of 12 percent of GDP. The current account deficits were widely perceived as unsustainable, and indeed they turned out to be: between 1980 and 1987, the escudo was devalued by 60 percent, and the current account deficit was eliminated. In contrast, Portugal today is not suffering from large adverse shocks; the official budget deficit has been reduced since the early 1990s (although with some signs of relapse in

Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area: The End of the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle?