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Trabajo presentado al congreso: "The Allied Social Science Associations(ASSA): The Benefits of Peace and the opportunity costs of war" celebrado en USA en 2010.This article exploits data on the pattern of violence across regions and over time to estimate the impact of the peace process in Northern Ireland on house prices. After establishing a negative correlation between killings and house prices, we estimate the parameters of a Markov switching model with conflict and peace as latent states. We use the model to estimate the size of the peace dividend as captured in house price changes. (JEL D74, R23, R31)Besley thanks the ESRC and CIFAR for financial support.Peer Reviewe

Estimating the Peace Dividend: The Impact of Violence on House Prices in Northern Ireland