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Background  Early prediction of bronchitis obliterans (BO) is of great significance to the improvement of the long-term prognosis of children caused by refractory  Mycoplasma pneumoniae  pneumonia (RMPP). This study aimed to establish a nomogram model to predict the risk of BO in children due to RMPP.    Methods  A retrospective observation was conducted to study the clinical data of children with RMPP (1–14 years old) during acute infection. According to whether there is BO observed in the bronchoscope, children were divided into BO and the non-BO groups. The multivariate logistic regression model was used to construct the nomogram model.    Results  One hundred and forty-one children with RMPP were finally included, of which 65 (46.0%) children with RMPP were complicated by BO. According to the multivariate logistic regression analysis, WBC count, ALB level, consolidation range exceeding 2/3 of lung lobes, timing of macrolides, glucocorticoids or fiber bronchoscopy and plastic bronchitis were independent influencing factors for the occurrence of BO and were incorporated into the nomogram. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) value of nomogram was 0.899 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.848–0.950). The Hosmer–Lemeshow test showed good calibration of the nomogram (p = 0.692).    Conclusion  A nomogram model found by seven risk factor was successfully constructed and can use to early prediction of children with BO due to RMPP.

bmc infectious diseases

Clinical features and risk factors analysis of bronchitis obliterans due to refractory Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia in children: a nomogram prediction model