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Background  Incorrect body weight shifting is a frequent cause of falls, and the control of the whole-body center of mass (CoM) by segmental coordination is essential during walking. Uncontrolled manifold (UCM) analysis is a method of examining the relation between variance in segmental coordination and CoM stability. However, no prospective cohort study has thoroughly investigated how variance in segmental configurations to stabilize the CoM relates to future falls. This study explored whether variance to stabilize the CoM was related to future falls.    Methods  At the baseline visit, 30 community-dwelling older adults walked 20 times on a 6-m walkway. Using kinematic data collected during walking by a three-dimensional motion capture system, UCM analysis was performed to investigate how segmental configuration contributes to CoM stability in the frontal plane. One year after the baseline visit, we evaluated whether the subjects experienced falls. Twelve subjects had experienced falls, and 16 had not. Comparisons of variance between older adults with and without falls were conducted by covariate analysis.    Results  No significant differences in variance were found in the mediolateral direction, whereas in the vertical direction, older adults with fall experiences had a greater variance, reflecting an unstable CoM, than those with no fall experiences.    Conclusions  We verified that the high variance in segmental configurations that destabilize the CoM in the vertical direction was related to future falls. The variables of UCM analysis can be useful for evaluating fall risk.

The relation between kinematic synergy to stabilize the center of mass during walking and future fall risks: a 1-year longitudinal study